We need to talk about diesel

...and the future of motoring in South Africa.

Diesel is the new devil, or so they say. It’s been a long time coming. While cars and their nasty carbon dioxide emissions have for decades borne the brunt of ecoawareness and the easy taxation that goes along with CO2 outputs, diesel vehicles have been quietly clickety-clacking in the background, spewing harmful nitrogen oxide (NOX) gases into our precious breathing space. It’s hard not to notice that carmakers have been forced to display average CO2 emissions per kilometer in their respective data sheets, while diesel engine cars seemed to get away with murder, with no required declarations of NOX production.

And then 2015 happened.

produce them for relatively small markets like ours. Japanese brands Toyota and Subaru have already stopped production of all diesel-powered passenger vehicles, while Britain’s only major carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover, has committed to offering electrified drivetrains, whether fully electric or hybrid, in every one of its models by next year. Performance marque Porsche has also halted diesels to focus on electric and hybrid cars and Volkswagen (South Africa’s most popular passenger car brand) has announced it will roll out its last-ever generation of internal combustion-powered cars in 2026. Simply put, South Africa will soon not have access to a bulk of the cars it sells in numbers, and local showrooms will soon start to look much like the ones in source markets such as Europe and Asia.

Volkswagen was caught redhanded cheating the emissions tests on its diesel vehicles, essentially falsifying the amount of poison about 11 million of its cars are producing around the world. This “Dieselgate” saga has shone one almighty spotlight on the noxious fumes diesel engines emit, and the motoring industry is still reeling in the after effects.

Numerous other carmakers have been implicated and probed in similar situations, standardised emissions test cycles have been adapted to reflect conditions closer to “real world” scenarios and governments the world over are scrambling to clamp down on the amount of smog their people inhale on a daily basis.

It’s that last point that is sending seismic ripples

According to Lightstone Auto, South Africa’s new vehicle sales data authority, diesel-powered passenger vehicles play a significant role in our market. Over the past 10 years, 32% of all new vehicles sold are fueled from the darker side of the pumps. And if we look at data from 2018 only, this figure jumps up to 39%.

Now imagine how different these numbers would look if consumers had far fewer diesel vehicle options. Access to far fewer diesels is a reality we’ll inevitably face quite soon – possibly even within the next year. So will petrol cars then make up the entire difference in sales charts? Unlikely, and the reason is the same: global appetite.

Fully electric vehicles are growing in popularity at exponential rates.

across the global automotive industry. And yes, they have – or will be – felt all the way down here at the southern tip of Africa.

“Impossible!” you say. How could Paris’s plan to ban all diesel- (and petrol-) powered cars from city centre by 2030 affect the South African market? How will Norway’s tax-free electric vehicle (EV) incentive play a role in our local motoring industry? How can the special rights and privileges EV drivers enjoy in Germany make any difference to what we drive in a market that still accepts vehicles with 14-year-old European emissions standards?

Generally speaking, South Africa and other emerging markets like ours, are slow to adapt. It takes longer for global fashion, food and music fads to make their ways here than in Europe and the US, where trends spread like wildfire with one tweet or Insta post. But in the case of cars and other passenger vehicles, we could potentially be forced to adapt rather quickly and the reason is simple: global appetite.

If the markets that South Africa sources its cars from no longer see demand for diesel vehicles, they certainly won’t go out of their way to

A forecast from energy research organisation Bloomberg NEF sees a massive boom in EV sales.

“Our latest forecast shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide in 2017, to 11 million in 2025 and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they become cheaper to make than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025.” The Bloomberg report also indicates an astonishing 55% of all new car sales, and 33% of the global fleet will be electric by 2040.

For now, the most prohibitive factor for the uptake of EVs, especially in South Africa, is price. But with falling battery prices, it is expected that price parity between ICEs and EVs across all segments will be reached within 10 years. Of the 5.6 million new vehicles sold in South Africa between 2008 and 2018, only 333 were electric – a ratio that pales in comparison to global trends. But with the massive shift to EVs in overseas markets, you better believe this trend will trickle down to ours.

Watch this space.